How many times have you heard someone call a player a bust? Sam Darnold, what a bust of a pick for New York! Zach Wilson is a bust! What defines a player as a bust, and why do I care?
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| Zach Wilson: Not a bust...yet |
I like to collect RCs for famous busts. Think Ryan Leaf, and all his wonderful RCs. They were so beloved in 1998 and now are considered trash by many. I, a kind soul, welcome them to my home where they will be cared for and loved.
Well...as long as they come cheap. My collection is only made up of card that I have rescued from dime and quarter boxes. Would I grab a Leaf RC Auto from a dollar box? Probably, but that's pushing it.
I came to this topic because one of the other projects I'm working on is to make my Vikings collection smaller as I shift to mostly just my Iowa Collection. I came to Christian Ponder and was about to add him to my trade collection on TCDB and wondered to myself, is Ponder a bust and does he belong in that collection?
Many Vikings fans will tell you that he is definitely a bust. But, are we too scarred to make rational decisions about this? Is this an excuse to make an elaborate spreadsheet to answer this question with math? It is!
I took the 1st Round draft picks from 1989 (the first year that drafted players showed up in sets that season) all the way through 2018 (far enough distance to make judgement calls. After all, Tua was considered a bust starting this season). Using data from pro-football-reference, I can pull each players wAV (Weighted Career Approximate Value) to get a rough idea of how well a player played. Then I used a draft capital chart that assigns a point value to each draft position (not adjusted for seasons with less first rounders, this isn't a perfect algorithm). I made addition value adjustments for the following rules that tend to affect perception of bust: Top 10 pick, 1st Round QB, Top 10 RB or WR. I excluded some players that had 0 wAV as they skewed to high, and I would remove players who underperformed because of circumstances or because I don't want to dump on the deceased (Dwayne Hopkins).
These are non-perfect results, but I do generally like what it outputted.
Here's the Top 10 in decending order. (8 QBs and 2 WRs)
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#10. Heath Shuler
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#9. Brady Quinn
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#8 Dan McGwire
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| #7 Josh Rosen |
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| #6 Charles Rogers |
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| #5 Kevin White |
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| #4 Jim Druckenmiller |
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| #3 JaMarcus Russell |
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#2 Akili Smith
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#1 Ryan Leaf
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Some other QBs that just missed out include Andre Ware, Paxton Lynch, Todd Marinovich, Johnny Manziel and David Klingler. Top RBs are Ki-Jana Carter, Curtis Enis and Lawrence Phillips. Top other positions are Dimitrius Underwood, Justin Gilbert, Reggie McGrew, Jamal Reynolds, Bruce Pickens and the apparently awful Huey Richardson.
So where do some other notables fall on the list? Tim Couch (36), Cade McNown (37), Matt Leinart (39) and EJ Manuel (55) mark the notable QBs, but the algorithm is right/wrong with Sam Bradford at 56. Disappointment at #1 yes, but not really a bust. It slides him ahead of David Carr, Rick Mirer and Robert Griffin. So maybe the bust cutoff is around 30? Let's see who's there:
29. Yatil Green
30. Justin Blackman
31. Steve Emtman
So, what's the answer on Ponder? He clocks in at #112. Not a bust. Here's the QBs in his range:
Kyle Boller
Bryon Leftwich
Carson Wentz
Christian Ponder
Blake Bortles
Just for fun, let's look at the bottom of the list. There will be no QBs down there as I pushed there expectations too high. Its the flaw of the algorithm, we are using football value to try to measure hobby value. Ideally I'd have an index of player peak value in their rookie season compared to now, but that's too much work. Anyway, here's the bottom:
Pretty good representation, lots of HOFers and future HOFers in that list.
Next, to try to do something similar for basketball and baseball? We shall see.
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